Biden, Trump and the desultory state of American politics
Majority of voters do not want either candidate to run again
(Biden is confident he can beat Trump once again. Pic: Wikicommons)
There’s one thing America does about politics better than anyone - campaign videos.
From the slick shots and stirring music, to the words that pull on the heartstrings, the nation has mastered this form of messaging, regardless of what one makes of the candidate.
And even if voters truly do not want to support the candidate again.
Joe Biden’s Tuesday morning video proclaiming he was running for reelection - three minutes long and featuring all of the above - was similarly slick, and rightly so. He and his team have near limitless resources and plenty of time to prepare for it.
The truth is, for all the hewing and hawing about whether he’d run and the entreaties from everyone from The Economist to Maureen Dowd urging him not to seek a second term - “Hey, Joe, Don’t Give It a Go” - it always appeared obvious the temptation of another four years would be too great.
A report in Axios suggested Biden’s friends thought he would have stood down if he believed his vice president, Kamala Harris, could have won in 2024.
But this feels like a graceless attempt to help protect Biden against accusations of having made a poor, self-centered decision, by throwing unnecessary shade on Harris, who will be on the ticket again for the vice presidency. Indeed, Harris features often in the video and will be crucial to the Democrats outreach, especially on certain issues.
And if Harris was not ready to step up for the top job, then at least one factor must be the failure of Biden in helping her prepare for the Oval Office.
Also worth remembering is that Barack Obama thought Hillary Clinton - not Biden, his vice president - was better suited to be the Democratic nominee in 2016.
In truth, Biden, like many politicians, has a large ego, and a belief that only he can deliver for the party against Trump in 2024.
His decision to try and extend his political career to the age of 86, which will be how old he is if he wins and completes a second term, has implications for others, not just Harris.
Just as Clinton’s de facto coronation by the party in 2016 persuaded many younger but talented Democrats not to put their hats in the ring, the enduring gerontocracy means the likes of Pete Buttigieg or Gretchen Whitmer, will have to cool their heels for now.
“When I ran for president four years ago, I said we're in a battle for the soul of America, and we still are,” Biden said in the video released on Tuesday. “This is not a time to be complacent. That's why I'm running for re-election.”
He added: “Let's finish this job. I know we can.”
One thing Biden appears to have conveniently put aside is this a majority of the nation does not want him to seek a second term. With no small irony, the same goes for Donald Trump.
A NBC News poll at the weekend, found 60 per cent do not want Trump back, including a third of Republicans. More strikingly, 70 per cent of Americans think Biden shouldn’t seek a second term - including 51 per cent of Democrats.
A key factor appears to be his age, an issue that Biden will not be able to easily dismiss, no matter how many photo ops his team arranges for him, wearing his Aviator shades and appearing active.
Around with 44 per cent of Democrats said he was too old to run, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. Meanwhile, 35 per cent of Republicans believe the 76-year-old Trump is too elderly.
In a hypothetical one-on-one contest, Biden led Trump 43 to 38 among registered voters. But - and this is a crucial point - it found a majority of registered voters do not want either Biden or Trump to run again.
This is a strange moment in America. Here we are, 560 days away from election day on Tuesday November 5, 2024, and the country wants neither the Democratic candidate, or the frontrunner to be the Republican contender.
(Despite majority of Republicans not wanting Trump as candidate he is GOP frontrunner. Pic: Wkicommons)
How did we reach this point?
Biden, for his part has persuaded himself that after he handily beat Trump in 2020, he has to do so again. He has painted the battle in existential terms, and his video contained shots of the Jan 6 attack on the US Capitol that sought to thwart him taking office.
“Around the country, MAGA extremists are lining up to take on those bedrock freedoms, cutting Social Security that you paid for your entire life, while cutting taxes for the very wealthy, dictating what healthcare decisions women can make, banning books, and tell people who they can love, all while making it more difficult for you to be able to vote,” Biden said.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Trump has up until now had things largely to himself. His former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley has made a low-impact entry into the contest, while Florida governor Ron DeSantis - the best hope for many who want to block Trump - has so far not yet formally announced.
He has also made a series of strategic political blunders that have led some to question whether all the talk about his potential is simply that - just talk.
Many had assumed, among them DeSantis and his wife, Casey, who reportedly is her husband’s chief strategist, that combining some populist, Trump-like pugilism with a Harvard background and the benefit of being 30 years younger, could be a wining combination.
At the moment, with DeSantis not yet in the race - there are some saying he may wait out 2024 - he trails far behind Trump in the polls, even as the former president continues to mock and poke fun at him.
One recent poll by Morning Consult found Trump had extended his lead over the younger man to 37 points. The poll released on Tuesday, said 58 per cent of potential GOP primary voters backed Trump, and 21 per cent wanted to vote for DeSantis.
Bear in mind that for all the polls, nobody should become too fixed on believing who’s going to be the next president. We’re still several months away from the first GOP debates, and no vote will be cast until the Republican Iowa caucus on Feb 5 2024.
And while there is always focus on national polls, only a handful of states, such as Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia, are truly battlegrounds in the presidential race’s final showdown.
Given America’s electoral college system, a candidate can lead in the national polls - can actually accrue more votes, as happened to Clinton in 2016 - and lose the White House.
Bear in mind also, a million and one things can happen by then. People can get sick, drop dead. New names enter the race, some name decides to drop out. Some candidates - in truth, just one - may be indicted with other criminal charges.
Trump has said he will not drop out of the race, even if he is federally indicted, and there’s no reason to think his most loyal supporters would not continue to vote for him, even if some are turned off.
Naturally enough Trump was among the first to respond to Biden’s announcement.
“You could take the five worst presidents in American history, and put them together, and they would not have done the damage Joe Biden has done to our Nation in just a few short years. Not even close,” he said in a statement.
“Thanks to Joe Biden’s socialist spending calamity, American families are being decimated by the worst inflation in half a century. Banks are failing. Our currency is crashing and the dollar will soon no longer be the world standard, which will be our greatest defeat in over 200 years.”
All in all, not a wonderful day for “the world’s greatest democracy”.